Errol Spence vs Tim Tszyu: Do or Die Down Under
By Chris Carlson
PhilBoxing.com
Sat, 25 Jul 2026
Errol Spence and Tim Tszyu are in a similar scenario best described as do or die. Yes, both parties could continue their careers with a loss, but it likely wouldn’t be at the highest level. Spence has signaled that if he loses, he will retire according to his new trainer Ronnie Shields. If Tszyu were to lose, it would be yet another setback. Given the unknowns, style matchup, and vulnerability on either side, this fight has a chance to really pop off. The co-feature between Stephen Fulton and Liam Wilson is interesting as well. This event will be live streaming on Amazon Prime PPV and available to DAZN Ultimate subscribers.
It’s been three long years since Errol Spence entered the ring. It’s difficult to believe Terence Crawford and Errol Spence squared off all the way back to 2023. So many questions to ponder when it comes to Errol Spence’s reasoning to return to the unforgiving sport of boxing. Rumors swirled over the last few years of Errol in negotiations, only to be false reports in the end. Spence recently noted during fight week that he would go to the gym for several workouts. Before long the urge and burn to comeback would fade.
How effective can Spence be off this long layoff? It does appear he stayed in relatively good shape which helps with many things, most importantly weight loss. Speaking of weight, Spence was granted two extra pounds in recent days, despite a 158-pound catchweight agreement. When asked about the extra weight, the Dallas native mentioned the bout is as at middleweight not 154, why not fight at the full 160 limit. Will get a look at how his body appears on the day of the weigh-in.
Although Tim Tszyu picked up two straight wins, it came against subpar oppositions. Prior to that, Tszyu lost three of his last four outings, two of those losses via knockout. When asked about the 154-pound division, Tim stated he would move to middleweight permanently. Activity could prove the biggest advantage for Tszyu this Saturday as we make our way to the meat and potatoes to pick a winner.
Should Tim jump on Errol from the opening bell? The short answer is yes. Now don’t get this boxing podcaster wrong, Tim shouldn’t throw the entire kitchen sink at Spence, but Australian native could benefit by catching Spence cold and/or rusty in the early frames. The longer this fight goes, generally speaking the better version of Errol Spence we will get. Once Spence finds his rhythm and timing, we should see a jump in performance thereafter. However, the odds Spence looks like his old self on Saturday is not all that realistic.
Both boxers are working with new corners, so don’t be shocked to see a different approach, at least in the opening rounds. Spence has fundamentals even as the aggressor, but we haven’t seen him show his overall skills as he did back in the amateurs. That said, when push comes to shove, look for these boxers to fall back into what they know best which is brawling.
Is Spence permanently damaged goods after the beating he took by the fists of Terrence Crawford? Not to mention the damage his body suffered in that horrific 2019 crash, Spence sustained. The winner has plenty of big fights on the horizon, especially if Errol comes out victorious. Vergil Ortiz would be a huge event in Texas as would Sebastian Fundora and of course Jaron Ennis. Ultimately, let's hope this fight card gives us fans a competitive battle.
Errol Spence is the favorite sitting around –114 to –150 whereas Tim Tszyu is a live dog fighting in the comforts of Australia slated anywhere from –117 all the way up to +118. Spence by decision is +360 and knockout +150. Tszyu is +480 by decision and +200 by stoppage. The betting odds lean towards the fight ending before the full 12 rounds, so betting the money line is safer instead of an exact angle. This boxing junkie believes the best bet is the –114 Spence money line which can be hedged at a plus number for Tim Tszyu if needed.
My Official Prediction is Errol Spence by decision.
PODCAST LINK: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-rope-a-dope-radio-podcast/id1794655742?i=1000777930956
Side Note: Other Bouts to keep an eye on this weekend include Fulton vs Wilson, Berlanga vs Butler, Hitchins vs Salas, Hackett vs Derevyanchenko, and Kelly vs Agyarko. In the Spence vs Tszyu co-feature bout, the best bet is Stephen Fulton –155 by decision.
[Editor's Note: The Fulton vs Wilson fight was cancelled after Fulton came in 6.5 lbs overweight and the Spence vs Tszyu catchweight agreement of 158 lbs was moved to the full blown middleweight of 160 lbs.]
Written by Chris Carlson Host/Producer of The Rope A Dope Radio Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker, I-Heart Radio, Amazon Podcasts, & More! Follow on Twitter @RopeADopeRadio
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