Mayweather-McGregor Fight Analysis and Prediction
By Ralph Rimpell
PhilBoxing.com
Sat, 05 Aug 2017
The date was January 25, 2003 over 14 years ago. This author was in attendance at the Penchanga Resort and Casino in California to watch late WBC welterweight champion Vernon Forrest who stood at the threshold of greatness ready to defend his title and unify against Brawler and Wes Studi (Hollywood actor) lookalike, WBA welterweight champion Ricardo Mayorga**.
On paper this fight was a very winnable fight for Forrest who at the time was undefeated at 35-0. Mayorga was 23-3-1 and clearly the lesser skilled fighter, but appeared to be the physically stronger fighter of the two combatants.
On that night Mayorga knew what he had to do if he wanted to become victorious. He maximized his strengths and minimized his weaknesses. He also minimized Forrest strengths and maximized his weaknesses. For three rounds he imposed brawling tactics, smothered Forrest's punches, didn?t allow Forrest to fight his fight, etc. He negated all the things that Forrest did to defeat his previous 35 opponents. In the third round Mayorga was able to hurt Forrest enough so that the referee stopped the fight and awarded Mayorga the victory and Mayorga became the new King of the welterweights. Not only were the people in attendance shocked, but also the rest the boxing world.
When Mayorga fought IBF champ Cory Spinks who is an excellent boxer, he couldn?t do any of the things he did to Forrest and he lost a 12 round majority decision badly.
In approximately 3 weeks this writer envisions a similar scenario in terms of ?skill for skill? and a ?battle of wills? when Floyd Mayweather (49-0, 26KOs) faces UFC fighter Conor McGregor (0-0, 0KOs*) in Las Vegas at the T-Mobile center. What must McGregor do in order to secure victory over boxing great and mulitidivision Champion Floyd Mayweather Jr.?
In the few months he has switched from MMA fighter to boxer, he is not gonna reach the same level of boxing skill as Mayweather. Whatever boxing skill McGregor has, he must try to continue to improve it so he does not look silly in the ring against Mayweather trying to box him. McGregor?s best chance is to try and overwhelm Mayweather and brawl with him in an attempt to catch Mayweather with a nice clean punch on the chin. He has to try and bust through the ?shoulder roll defense? Mayweather is known for. McGregor must throw the hardest jabs, punches, combinations, and the ?kitchen sink? from all different angles as hard as he can. In order to do this McGregor will have to be in the best shape of his life to go and keep up the pace for 12 rounds!
During training camp he should be improving his ?cardio?. That involves much road work and wind sprints to name few, so he is able to go the full 12 rounds if need be. He should also be sparring with boxers with good defense that are not easy to hit.
It was reported that when Future Hall of Famer and now retired middleweight great Bernard Hopkins sparred in training camp, he would change sparring partners when he found them too easy to hit. That was a good method. I?m sure that is what kept Hopkins sharp and successful in having all those middleweight defenses.
McGregor should ask himself that question if he is currently beating up sparring partners and easily landing his punches, because Mayweather will not be easy to hit. If McGregor is to be victorious against Mayweather, he has to fight similar to how Mayorga did against Forrest. He has to be that ?Caveman? he was referred to and a ?Brute? to impose his will on Mayweather for 12 full rounds and hope he lands a ?haymaker perfectly on his chin? along the way or totally outworks Mayweather to the point where people are saying McGregor won.
What does Mayweather have to do defeat McGregor?
After over 20 years in the sport, it?s likely no puzzle for Mayweather in terms of what he needs to do to defeat McGregor? Mayweather has been on this stage multiple times. He has to keep his composure, box, use good defense, and use the ring for good movement. Fight night should be another day at the office for Mayweather. Mayweather should not make the mistake that this guy has no boxing experience and "can?t hurt me". So what can we expect at the sound of the first bell?
McGregor is a world champion in a similar sport on some level, he appears bigger, stronger, and is 28 years old. Look for Mayweather to outbox McGregor and win the first few rounds easily. Look for McGregor to chase and impose brawling tactics on Mayweather because that will likely be his only hope. The momentum may go back and forth in each fighter's favor. In the end the fighter who will prevail will be the fighter who will be able to impose his will on the other fighter.
I look for McGregor to win by 12 round decision and shock the world.
*McGregor?s MMA record is 21-3, 18KOs. Boxing Record 0-0, 0KOs
**Coincidentally, Mayorga is a two weight division champion that has gone on to fight as an MMA fighter with a record of 0-3, 1NC.
Contact Writer: RLuvsboxing@aol.com
***Ralph Rimpell is a writer based out of New York and is a Boxing Correspondent for Philboxing.com. Ralph holds an undergraduate degree from City University of New York. He has been a Boxing Writer for over ten years having written for several top boxing websites on the World Wide Web. Before becoming a writer, Ralph's passion was for professional wrestling until he realized professional wrestling was entertainment and not a real sport. It was at that time the 1984 US Olympic team made up of future stars such as Evander Holyfield, Meldrick Taylor, Pernell Whitaker, etc. entered the professional ranks and signed with promotional outfit Main Events.It was also at that time a young exciting Heavyweight originally hailing from Brooklyn named Mike Tyson also turned professional and became the face of boxing. Young boxing fan Ralph just couldn't get enough of boxing as a large part of it was being broadcast on "free TV". As time went on, Ralph felt boxing writers were not being forthcoming with their boxing coverage, opinion pieces, interviews, etc. So Ralph decided to write an article and submitted it to a Boxing website thinking it would be deleted and ignored by the Editor. To Ralph's surprise his article was posted on their website and the readers embraced it. The rest is history.
"I thank God for the Internet because it has created opportunities for writers like myself who likely would not have been given an opportunity to write for print publications. I hope someday soon to expand my role in Boxing on different levels." -- Ralph Rimpell
Click here to view a list of other articles written by Ralph Rimpell.
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