Canelo vs. Munguia: Mexican Standoff on Saturday
By Chris Carlson
PhilBoxing.com
Sat, 04 May 2024
Cinco de Mayo weekend is upon us and that can only mean one thing, Canelo Alvarez is back in the ring. This time he faces off versus a younger Mexican foe by the name of Jaime Munguia. Does this young gun have what it takes to knock off the king? Or will Canelo reign supreme as the face in the sport of boxing? This Premier Boxing Champions event will be live streaming on Amazon Prime on PPV along with a host of other platforms available for purchase.
Just short of two weeks ago the boxing world witnessed a major upset by the hands of Ryan Garcia. Given the recent news about a failed drug test that victory is in question. The betting sites have Jaime as an underdog sitting anywhere from + 350 to +410. This boxing podcaster believes those are fair odds and it feels the boxing public is calling for a sizable upset for specific reasons. The main reason being the fact that Canelo is not fighting David Benavidez on May 4th.
Don’t get me wrong I do think Munguia is a solid boxer who will test Alvarez to an extent anyways. For a long period of time Jaime’s career seemed stuck in neutral while facing mediocre opposition, especially after his close points win over Dennis Hogan in 2019. That was the case up until Jaime took on an aged but still legit test in Sergiy Derevyanchenko. Sergiy has a bunch of competitive losses and one could debate the outcome versus Gennadiy Golovkin.
To his credit, Munguia did come through in the clutch scoring a 12th round knockdown via body shot to seal the deal. And to be fair it’s not like Canelo hasn’t got the benefit of the doubt in close decisions. Early this year Jaime put on a display by dismantling John Ryder, stopping him in the 9th round. That is the other reason so many media members and tuned-in boxing fans give Jaime such a good shot at beating Canelo. The problem with that theory is although Canelo couldn’t end the fight early versus Ryder he still beat the dog shit out of him.
At some point a fighter will show his or her age enough so it severely affects the way they fight. Yes Canelo is no longer at his peak which is no real shocker considering what age he was turning pro. It’s also no secret that Canelo likes to fight at a slower pace and will either take rounds off and/or look a bit tired until he finds a second wind. And that’s where Jaime being the younger, hungry boxer needs to pounce.
It doesn’t mean Munguia should approach this matchup like the Tasmanian devil and completely forget to respect his elder. It does mean he will have to show that chin of his is sturdy and his punch rate remains fairly high. Cutting the distance with a jab will be a must. One way or another Munguia will have to force his way inside, making this a rough and tumble affair.
Hurting Canelo is difficult to do but will be mandatory to get a decision, which brings us to the next point. Trying to beat Canelo on the judge’s scorecards is tough task. Even Floyd Mayweather saw a draw scorecard and he handled Alvarez back in 2013. Scoring a knockdown is nearly impossible. One thing that stands out in fights one and two against Golovkin was the lack of body punching coming from GGG.
Will Munguia be able to target Canelo’s body? If so he could open up holes in Canelo’s defense up top and then land the type of punches that will get the judges attention. The answer is likely no and that comes down to Canelo’s counter punching and head movement. We know Canelo is at a higher level skill wise and the big fight night experience gap between him and Jaime in that category. If Munguia is too aggressive Canelo will make him pay. If Munguia only tries to land bombs to the head and fights in the middle of ring Canelo will win the majority of rounds.
Back to the jab and body work being important to some extent so Jaime can actual apply smarter pressure. If he can do that he will put Canelo either on the ropes or force Alvarez into lateral movement. By the way Canelo can adjust to fighting and winning in those scenarios, but at least it will be the best path to victory for the young lion. Another key point is both fighters have plenty of pop when it comes to power punching at 168.
This fight will have moments within the rounds and for full rounds that we see great work by Jaime Munguia. In the end though look for Canelo to find his timing and separate from Munguia for a clean yet entertaining bout. A TKO is on the table if Canelo is able to land flush repeatedly in the early rounds. If that’s the case there is a chance at a stoppage from the punishment angle. However, this boxing junkie doesn’t believe Canelo will go for the kill and really put his punches together in bunches unless Jaime is in real trouble.
My Official Prediction is Canelo Alvarez by Unanimous Decision.
PODCAST LINK: http://tobtr.com/12335584
Side Note: Don’t forget to set your alarms for the return of Naoya Inoue and the deep card live from Japan on ESPN+ Monday morning.
Written by Chris Carlson Host/Producer of The Rope A Dope Radio Podcast Available at www.blogtalkradio.com/ropeadoperadio Follow on Twitter @RopeADopeRadio
Click here to view a list of other articles written by Chris Carlson.
Recent PhilBoxing.com In-House articles:
Signed, Sealed… but Still Unsettled: Unanswered Questions Hang Over Fury-Joshua Ahead of Expected Ink
By NewsHub @ PhilBoxing , Wed, 29 Jul 2026VETERAN SAVVY VS UNDEFEATED POWER: MUGICHA NAKAGAWA VS LEMUEL DE BARBO AUGUST 1 IN LA TRINIDAD
By Carlos Costa, Wed, 29 Jul 2026SKYE NICOLSON TO DEFEND WORLD TITLE AGAINST MIYO YOSHIDA ON AUG 29 IN BIRMINGHAM AS MATCHROOM AND MVP ANNOUNCE ALLIANCE
Wed, 29 Jul 2026Tickets for Martinez vs. Plantic in Los Angles, Saturday, August 29
Wed, 29 Jul 2026Grandy Twins Celebrate Milestone 18th Birthday, Set to Shine at BiYu Promotions' "Fights Under the Lights" on August 14
Tue, 28 Jul 2026Sergeev and Lubkovich set for key bouts at WINLINE. IBA.PRO 20 in Naberezhnye Chelny
Tue, 28 Jul 2026Hard-hitting SEA Games bronze medalist Mark Ashley Fajardo signs with Sanman Boxing
Tue, 28 Jul 2026THE PAST WEEK IN ACTION 27 JULY 2026: Tszyu vs Spence, Return of Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury Highlight Busy Week
By Eric Armit, Tue, 28 Jul 2026The Legacy Continues: Team Durán Prepares for Historic Panama-Mexico Showdown
By Gabriel F. Cordero, Tue, 28 Jul 2026NM Ric Portugalera Tops Hongkong Blitz Chess
By Marlon Bernardino, Tue, 28 Jul 2026Nurghali gets second shot at Japparbergenov’s bantamweight title at International Boxing Day in Astana
Tue, 28 Jul 2026Champion's Mindset: Gustavo Trujillo Ready to Defend BKB Heavyweight Title Against Mark O'Neil at BKB 58
Tue, 28 Jul 2026Spanish boxer Eddine has been Hospitalized in Spain
By Gabriel F. Cordero, Tue, 28 Jul 2026PH football in group C, G
By Lito delos Reyes, Tue, 28 Jul 2026PHILBOXING.COM MONDAY ROUNDUP: Tszyu Outclasses Spence in Sydney as "The Truth" Retires; Heavyweight Drama in Pattaya and Jeddah
By NewsHub @ PhilBoxing , Mon, 27 Jul 2026