The battle for leverage is at the heart of the Mayweather vs. Pacquaio negotiations
By Chris Carlson
PhilBoxing.com
Thu, 05 Feb 2015
As the world turns in the 5 year soap opera that is the Mayweather vs. Pacquaio negotiations one thing is for certain. Leverage is the core issue amongst ego, pride, and money. With only a few people privy to real information about this deal the rest of us are playing the guessing game. Steve Kim recently wrote a piece that was very honest entitled ?We know nothing? here is the link: http://ucnlive.com/know-nothing/
Steve has tons talent and connections, yet openly admits he doesn't know just has a feeling on which way this thing goes. As the rest of the world waits with fingers and toes crossed were all left trying figure out what seems logical and who's telling the (most) truth.
The layers to this PPV fight need to be peeled one by one which takes a long time to get sorted out. HBO/Time Warner had both fighters on their network and still couldn't get it done. By adding Showtime/CBS to the fray it only complicates the situation. The key to any business agreement is leverage. Let's explore what each player's viewpoint is and how it relates to helping or hampering this super fight to be agreed upon.
Both Bob Arum and Manny Pacquiao told us weeks ago that everything is set and that only Floyd Mayweather could prevent this money train from reaching its final stop. Arum would let everyone within ears reach know that's it Floyd who is running away once again and clearly doesn't want this fight.
A few months back Arum tried to strengthen his piece of the bargaining pie by claiming he can make it a billion dollar fight. The first quote that I saw from Arum was from an overseas site called Daily Mail. The article pointed out if one multiplied $5 by one-tenth of the Chinese population of 1.36 billion the figure would amount to 650 million dollars. Bob Arum's quotes were heard around the world and within hours many articles were written speculating that with all the new money added to the pot it will surely be enough for everyone involved to come to terms.
I understand why he is saying this but I think Bob Arum is overstating his Chinese PPV potential profit to help get a bigger piece of the pie. I base that off the similar statements made in the summer of 2013 prior to the Pacquiao vs. Rios fight. If you have forgotten about what Bob and many others were speculating about feel free to google it.
Back in 2013 Arum and others raved about how Pac vs. Rios could break the overall pay-per-view record because of the low asking price and the massive population in China. Chinese fans would be able to watch the PPV on their smart phones and tablets. Based off the TV ratings Top Rank was getting in China it was considered a virtual gimme that the event with be a huge windfall.
After the one-sided bout had came and went there was no press release from Top Rank bragging, rightfully so, about the millions of Chinese people that bought the pay-per-view. The plan was very ambitious and I applaud Arum for expanding his empire to China. Clearly the gambling revenue in Macua, which dwarfs Las Vegas, is only growing and the signing of Olympic Gold Medalist Zou Shiming was genius in a variety of ways that will bring growth, opportunity, and prosperity to Top Rank as well as the sport of boxing. However, claiming this super fight can reach a billion dollars is fool?s gold but it does play out great in the media. At the same time it puts even more pressure on the ever deteriorating public persona of one Floyd Mayweather.
Mayweather is no doubt a much bigger name than Brandon Rios. There will be more interest because the name recognition of both fighters worldwide including China. It seems like a bit of a reach to assume they can draw 80-100 million people when Pacquiao's name alone in Asia should have produced at least a few million buys in order to reach such a lofty goal of 500-600+ million dollars. I?m not saying it won?t sell I just done see Mayweather?s name being worth an extra 100 million buys when Pacquiao?s clout didn?t bring enough attention in China.
Manny's profile in the states gives him plenty of leverage as the only fighter who can bring Mayweather the most money he could possible make in one fight. The fact that he re-signed with Top Rank and HBO adds a layer of leverage. From what we are hearing Top Rank will basically be the lead promoter if this fight is made, even though it sounds like Mayweather Promotions and MP Promotions will be involved as well.
The Al Haymon/Floyd Mayweather side holds plenty of pieces to the puzzle being that Mayweather doesn't need Manny and Top Rank to make large chunks of money. Whereas Manny doesn't have a top flight opponent outside of Canelo or a fifth fight with Juan Manuel Marquez, both seem unlikely at this point.
Being that Floyd gets paid as a fighter and promoter he is in no rush to get a huge payday that would come May 2 versus Pacman. The only pressure that can be applied to the Money May would have to come from within the ranks of Showtime Sports VP/GM and the CEO of CBS. Clearly Floyd holds much of the bargaining chips from a fighter level and with Al Haymon as his ?advisor? only increasing his power with Haymon?s pull with Showtime as we all witnessed in the second half of 2014.
Let's peel the layers back even more by diving into the network issues that have complicated the negotiations even more. As we all know Mayweather signed a six fight deal with Showtime and has two bouts remaining on the contract. Three out of the four PPV's reportedly fell short of expectation giving Showtime/CBS more incentive to push even harder for this mega fight in order to make their major investment worthwhile.
Even though HBO spent plenty of budget dollars on Mayweather from 1998 to 2005 it pales in comparison to the dollars that Showtime and parent company CBS has spent. From 2005(Besides Mitchell fight) to 2012, Mayweather was a HBO PPV fighter thus taking the purse burden off of HBO, placing it on to the promoter whether it was Top Rank, Goosen, or Golden Boy. In fact, HBO made lots of money off Mayweather without having to lay down the big money he started to make later in his career.
The Showtime deal has been estimated at 200 million dollars minimum so clearly they have some leverage pertaining to the rebroadcast and more importantly the bigger percentage on the back-end. Time will tell if Les Moones and Stephen Espinoza truly have Floyd Mayweather on board despite the doubt made public by Bob Arum and the boxing fans.
It should be noted that Espinoza, when defending recent PPV sales on Twitter, stated that the guaranteed money is still on the promoter (Golden Boy) and let us not forget that it was a Golden Boy check that Money May showed to the world worth 41.5 million for his Canelo fight. The info on who covers the losses and the structure of the deal is private. Even with the loss on PPV Showtime may have access to the live gate which means that in 2014 they made money on those Maidana fights generating a combined 32 million.
HBO boxing has been the top-tier network for some time now and with Ken Hershman behind the wheel has brought fresh air to what had been a clouded game-plan in recent years. They too have negotiating power and under Hershman haven't been afraid to flex their muscles when they see fit.
There first Arnold (flex-pose) moment as it pertains to this subject is when Top Rank resigned Manny Pacquiao. According to Arum, HBO pitched in to help retain his services and for their effort now hold an important bargaining chip as well. For the last few weeks Bob Arum and Stephen Espinoza traded barbs on the internet. Thru all of the back and forth HBO had stayed quiet even as public perception began to turn against them as the primary reason that talks were at a standstill.
That was the case until early this week when the network sent out a press release which seemed odd and a bit out of place, considering how easy it would be for Hershman to pick up a phone for a quick interview. They basically stated they ready to go and were not impeding the process. In fact they claim that the fighters still need to work out their differences.
HBO can use their prior investment during the early and prime stages of Mayweather's career as a case for why they should get what they want. And what do they want you ask? It's been rumored that HBO doesn't want to do the same deal that was agreed on in 2002 between the two networks that gave the winner of the Lewis/HBO vs. Tyson/Showtime fight the rights to the rebroadcast. Instead it sounds like HBO is asking for a dual broadcast and have already schedule an interesting fight to pair with the PPV replay.
For weeks HBO may have been quiet verbally but judging by their actions, Canelo vs. Kirkland sends a clear message they don't intend to budge. If Mayweather rematches Miguel Cotto, HBO will counter with a May 2 non-PPV that could possible dip into Showtime/Mayweather?s revenue both on PPV and at the gate in Las Vegas. That's right we could get a repeat of 2012, this time on a much higher scale with Canelo scheduled for the Thomas Mack Center on May 2 to go head to head with whomever Mayweather fights at the MGM Grand Arena if the parties involved can?t agree to terms.
The head to head clash issue was forced by none other than Golden Boy Promotions whom once again is using Canelo as a thorn in a network?s pride, this time being Showtime instead of HBO. Don't be fooled by all the Cold War being over talk, it has just begun to thaw. The fight that was supposed to officially bring an end to the Cold War was Canelo vs. Cotto. Oscar and Arum tried to squeeze Mayweather off the Cinco De Mayo date which has been a PPV fixture no matter who is fighting, contrary to Arum?s save it for the Mexican fighters themed rant. Arum didn't have a problem when he scheduled Pacquiao versus Shane Mosley or Ricky Hatton on that coveted weekend.
Bottom line is Oscar jumped the gun when he publicly announced the fight was close to being done and got burnt by Mayweather & Co. when they countered that move with one of their own. Not to say Cotto didn't sign because of a possible rematch but it made him more patient with another option on the table. HBO will probably stick to their guns and with Floyd?s expiring contract with Showtime by year?s end they might just be content on waiting until 2016.
I have a feeling that most of the details will come out if this deal falls apart. And once again will be left trying to do are best detective work to asset blame and as always the legions of Pactards/Flomos will rule the day. Here's hoping that this tug of war gets finalized soon otherwise shame on everyone involved.
Written by Chris Carlson Owner and Host of Rope A Dope Radio at www.blogtalkradio.com/ropeadoperadio
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