Analysis: Pacquiao-Diaz Duel in Lethal Combination Will be Messy and Bloody
By Manny Piñol
PhilBoxing.com
Wed, 21 May 2008
Los Angeles, California - Imagine two raging bulls in a head-on battle or two snorting buffalos whose horns are locked in mortal combat.
In both cases, the ending will be messy and bloody.
Such is the picture Top Rank's Bob Arum projects the fight between World Boxing Council (WBC) lightweight champion David Diaz and WBC superfeatherweight titlist Manny Pacquiao.
While many would call that a hardsell effort on the part of Arum to boost the reputation of defending champion David Diaz, who as of last reckoning was already a +330 underdog against Pacquiao, it is highly probable that the June 28 fight may indeed be bloody and messy.
Why? Well for one, David Diaz's only chance of winning against Manny Pacquiao is for him to relentless attack the Filipino champion's body, apparently the chink in the armor of the Pacman as shown in his last fight against Juan Manuel Marquez.
Diaz, as is his style, is expected to endlessly move forward, duck the vaunted left of Pacquiao and go to the midsection. The Pacman is not known to throw a lot of body punches. Relying on his power and strength, he goes to the upper body hoping to connect to the head and score a knockdown or a knockout.
Diaz and his trainer, the veteran Jim Strickland, are expected to exploit this weakness in the armory of Pacquiao and drag the Filipino challenger to a Close Quarter Battle, where the American champion has the obvious edge.
But once Diaz and his trainer choose to fight a CQB, they will have to face the risk of the American champion getting tagged by Pacquiao's powerful left. This could be dangerous for Diaz because he is not that durable, as proven by the knockdown scored by Erik Morales.
Pacquiao, on the other hand, may opt to engage Diaz in the center of the ring where he has more room to maneuver -- backstep and sidestep - and tag the champion with his powerful punches.
If the Filipino champion is able to avoid being pushed to the ropes by the champion, described by Bob Arum as the modern day Jake "Raging Bull" Lamotta, then he will prevail, depending of course, on the level of his preparation for this fight. Pacquiao needs a lot of energy to offset the shoving and pushing that he should expect from Diaz.
An ill-prepared Manny Pacquiao may tire early on from the pushing, the shoving and the body punching of David Diaz. But a well-prepared Pacquiao, like the boxer who fought Marco Antonio Barrera in their second encounter, will finish off Diaz early.
With over a month to go before the "Lethal Combination" unfolds at the Mandalay Bay, how do I look at the outcome? Well, simply said if the fight last the distance and Diaz survives Pacquiao's vaunted power, he may still be able to hang on to his title by decision. On the other hand, a well-conditioned and well-prepared Pacquiao would be capable of disposing of the champion in the middle rounds.
But whatever is the case, the fight is certainly expected to be messy and bloody. That is what one should expect when two known sluggers who are too proud to back off meet in the center of the ring.
Click here to view a list of other articles written by Manny Piñol.
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