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Odds pick Pacquiao to win over Broner

By Eddie Alinea
Wed, 05 Dec 2018

World Boxing Association welterweight titlist Manny Pacquiao has barely started his preparation for his first title defense against challenger Adrien Broner but this doesn’t stop boxing analysts and odds makers alike to install he Filipino ring icon early favorite to keep his crown.

Pacquiao, in fact, had just began the sparring part of his fine-tuning program last Tuesday, but that early earned kudos from his training staff, including chief trainer Buboy Fernandez and conditioning coach Justin Fortune.

Paddy Power and Betfair in their November ranking both picked Pacquiao, who will turn 40 on December 17, to win 4/9 while the American pretender a 7/4 underdog. Odds of draw is 20/1.

Bovada, on the other hand, as of Novermber 21, saw the eight-division belt-owner a -230 winner with Broner +180.

Boxing writer Leroy Cleveland from a soon as the fight was announced late last month predicted Pacquiao to be a strong favourite, “but not overwhelming.”

Same with Scott Hastings, who, likewise, expects the father of five with wife, former Sarangani Vice Gov Jinkee, the winner based on Pacquao’s winning his of his last four fights, a record which, he added, could have been 4-0 had it not been for his controversial loss to Australian Jeff Horn.

“Pacquiao is an eight-division world champion and for a while he was ranked as the top pound-for-pound boxer in the world, with tremendous heart and thunderous punching power,” Hastings wrote. “The 39-year-old has won three of his last four fights, including his aforementioned knockout over Lucas Matthysse in July, his first knockout victory since November 2009 against Miguel Cotto.”

For Cleveland, “it will be youth and brashness of the 29 year old Broner against the experience and footwork of Pacquiao, who will be 40 when he next steps in the ring.”

“While Broner is younger than Matthysse and naturally bigger as a welterweight, he'll be an even bigger underdog because Manny has looked solid in 3 of his last 4 bouts, and was dynamic in his most recent scrap,” Cleveland said.

Broner, on the other hand, hasn't looked bad lately, added Cleveland. “However, as a welterweight, Adrien has fought more like a No. 10, 11 or 12th ranked fighter than an elite-level powerbroker. And, unlike Matthysse, Adrien hasn't demonstrated the level of punching power lately to make him an imminent threat.”

BoxRec currently ranks Broner as its No. 8 welterweight while Terence Crawford is No.1, PacMan is No. 2 and Errol Spence sits at No. 3.

At welterweight, Cleveland noted, “Broner hasn't been active enough offensively to be a threat to win on points. When stung or running low on gas, Broner takes long respites in offense, as was the case against Jessie Vargas in April. Broner fell well behind early and was forced to carry nearly every round from 7 on to earn a draw.”

“Broner will likely need a knockout to win yet he's recorded just 2 in his last 9 fights,” he said. “Couple that with the fact that Pacquiao has a solid chin and is extremely difficult to hit cleanly and it's easy making Manny Pacquiao a -900 favorite over Broner. My Pick: Pacquiao by UD."

Photo: Manny Pacquiao begins his sparring last Tuesday in General Santos City, Philippines in preparation for his upcoming fight against Andrien Broner on Jan. 19 in Las Vegas.

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